基于DER-Wolfson指数的中国海洋经济极化研究

Chinese Marine Economic Polarization Based on DER-Wolfson Index

从人均海洋产值、海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的层面出发,借助DER指数、Wolfson指数和信息扩散技术对中国沿海11省市1996~2015年间的海洋经济极化趋势与规律进行分析,并利用DER指数的认同-梳理框架解释导致极化的原因。研究发现:①1996~2015年间,人均海洋产值、海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的极化效应已经显现。②海洋经济密度、海洋产业贡献度的DER指数和Wolfson指数都呈上升趋势;人均海洋产值的DER指数呈上升趋势,Wolfson指数呈下降趋势。③认同性和疏离性呈现相反的变化趋势,疏离性的变化是海洋经济极化的主要原因。由此提出促进中国沿海省域海洋经济协调、可持续发展的对策建议。

From the perspective of per capita marine output,the density of marine economy,the contribution of marine industries,and with the help of DER index,Wolfson index and information diffusion technology,this study analyzed the trend and regularity of marine economic polarization in 11 coastal provinces in China(not including Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)during 1996-2015,and explained the causes of polarization using the DER index identity-alienation framework.The study found:1)Between 1996 and 2015,polarization effect begins to appear in the per capita marine output,the density of marine economy,the contribution of marine industries.2)The DER index and Wolfson index of marine economic density,and contribution of marine industries all showed an upward trend.The DER index of per capita marine output shows an upward trend while the Wolfson index shows a downward trend.3)The changes of alienation are the major causes of changes in the polarization of the marine economy.So this study proposed countermeasures to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of marine economy in Chinese coastal provinces.