中国成品油消费需求波动及影响因素分析

Analysis on fluctuations and influencing factors of China’s demand for refined oil

把握中国成品油消费需求波动规律,对于中国成品油市场稳定发展具有重要意义。依据周期波动理论,以中国成品油消费市场为例,分析了中国成品油消费需求整体变化趋势。通过计量经济方法对近10年的中国成品油消费量波动曲线的变化特征做了进一步分析,得出一个波动周期,而后与美国进行对比分析。结合波动变化规律曲线,对引起中国成品油消费量波动的关键因素进行具体分析并得出其影响因素。

Grasping the fluctuation law of China’s refined oil consumption demand is of great significance to the stable development of China’s refined oil market. Based on the theory of cyclical fluctuations,this paper takes China’s refined oil consumption market as an example to analyze the overall changing trend of China’s refined oil consumption demand.By the econometric method,it further analyzes the variation characteristics of China’s refined oil consumption fluctuation curve in the past ten years and a fluctuation period is gained,which is compared with that of the United States.Finally,combined with the fluctuation curve of volatility,the key factors that cause China’s refined oil consumption to fluctuate are analyzed in detail.