我国住房限售政策能够有效抑制房价上涨么?——基于100个城市的实证研究

An Analysis on the Effects of the House-sale Restrictions Policy on China’s Housing Market

限售政策作为一项创新的试错型政策,最为引人注目。本文基于倍差法考察房地产限售政策在抑制房价上涨中的作用,并检验不同版本的限售政策的效果差异。实证研究结果表明,限售政策可以显著抑制房价的上涨速度,限售范围、限售年限的长短均是影响限售政策效果的重要因素。此外,本文还发现限购城市的限售政策取得了更为显著的抑制房价上涨作用。基于以上研究结论,建议房价上涨过快的城市加强限售政策,稳定房价预期,抑制房价过快上涨。

House-sale Restriction policy,as an innovative trial-and-error policy,is the most eye-catching regulation on China’s housing market in 2017.This paper investigates the effect of the House-sale restriction policy in restraining the excessively rapid rise of housing price under the framework of difference in differences(DID).And then this paper tests effectiveness of different versions of the House-sale Restriction policy.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the release of House-sale Restriction policy can significantly reduce the gowth rate of housing price.Second,in view of the detailed rules of the limited sales policy,the limited sales scope significantly affects effectiveness of the House-sale Policy.And the length of the limit period is an important factor affecting the effect of the limit period.Thirdly,this paper also discusses the difference between the effect of the House-sale Restriction policy in the cities with and without the House-purchase Restriction policy,and the results show that the sales restriction policy in those cities with the House-purchase Restriction policy has achieved a more significant effect of restraining the housing price rise.To sum up,House-sale Restrictions Policy has played a significant rold on curbing the soaring housing price and can be one of the powerful tools to promote house price to return to rationality.