中国产业结构调整升级趋势与“十四五”时期政策思路

The Trend of Industrial Structure Adjustment and Upgrading in China and the Thoughts of Policy Adjustment during the “14th Five-Year Plan”

本文依据产业结构变动影响因素的变化特点,分析了中国产业结构调整升级的中长期趋势,并提出“十四五”时期促进产业结构调整升级的政策思路。从目前至2035年以至2050年,影响中国产业结构变动的重大因素主要是推动高质量发展的政策导向、新技术革命和工业革命,以及新一轮深化改革开放。中国产业结构调整升级的阶段性趋势是:2016—2020年是承上启下的初步推进期,2020—2035年是多种因素作用下的快速变动期,2035年之后将进入有规律演变的相对稳定期。“十四五”时期要重点关注和解决的主要结构问题是:工业产能过剩问题、新兴产业发展问题、制造业的地位和作用问题、服务业结构的优化问题。“十四五”时期要总结吸收“十三五”时期的有益经验,推进产业结构政策的调整转变,完善政策实施的条件和机制。基本取向:一是坚持以供给侧结构性改革为引领,以深化改革促进产业政策的合理设计和有效实施;二是坚持处理好政府与市场的关系,使产业结构政策建立在使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用的体制机制上;三是坚持把结构调整与产业升级结合起来,推动制造业向中高端发展、高质量发展并增强对结构优化的带动效应。

Based on the changing characteristics of the factors affecting the changes in industrial structure,this paper analyses the medium-and long-term trends of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in China,and proposes the policy ideas for promoting the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure during the“14th Five-Year Plan"period.By 2050,especially until 2035,the major factors affecting the changes of China’s industrial structure are mainly the policy orientation of promoting high-quality development,the new technological revolution and the industrial revolution,and the new round of deepening reform and opening-up.The staged trend of China’s industrial structure adjustment and upgrading is:2016-2020 is the preliminary promotion period connecting the preceding and the following,2020-2035 is a period of rapid change under the influence of various factors,and after 2035 will enter a relatively stable period of regular evolution.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the main structural problems should be focused on and solved are:industrial overcapacity,the development of emerging industries,the status and role of manufacturing industry,and the optimization of service industry structure.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”,we should sum up and absorb the beneficial experience of the“13th Five-Year Plan”,promote the adjustment and transformation of industrial structure policies,and improve the conditions and mechanisms for policy implementation.The basic orientations:first,adhere to the supply-side structural reform as a guide,deepen reform to promote the rational design and effective implementation of industrial policies;second,insist on handling the relationship between the government and the market,so that the industrial structure policy is based on the allocation of resources in the market.The third is to combine structural adjustment with industrial upgrading,promote the development of manufacturing to medium and high-end,high-quality development and enhance the driving effect on structural optimization.