基于大数据库分析的大兴安岭地区夏季区域洪水影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Regional Flood in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area during Summer based on Large Database Analysis

文章通过建立大兴安岭区域洪水有关气候气象因子、自然因子、洪水系列特征等大数据库,利用相关、关联性、小波、方差等分析技术找到区域洪水的影响因子,并分析其演变规律,发现了大兴安岭区域性洪水发生的原驱动方式。即同处于北半球的地极移动和北大西洋环流转换与大兴安岭夏季区域洪水之间存在一种环状的扰动、耦合机制,并以此建立了该区域洪水的长期预报模式。

Correlation, relatedness, wavelet, variance and other analysis technology are utilized for discovering regional flood impact factors by establishing flood climate meteorological factor, natural factor, flood series features and other big database in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area. The evolution law thereof is analyzed. The original drive mode of regional floods in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area is discovered. In other words, there is a circular disturbance and coupling mechanism among the northern hemisphere earth poleshift, the north Atlantic circulation transition and the summer regional flood in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The long-term forecast model of flood in the area is established.