凤城市居民伤害死亡趋势分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of death from injury in Fengcheng residents

目的分析2009-2017年凤城市居民伤害死亡趋势并预测2018-2021年情况,为伤害防控提供依据。方法收集2009-2017年凤城市全死因监测资料和人口学资料,统计伤害死亡率、标化死亡率和年度变化百分比(APC),建立GM (1,1)灰色模型预测2018-2021年凤城市伤害死亡率。结果 2009-2017年凤城市居民伤害死亡率为52.68/10万,标化死亡率为46.50/10万,标化死亡率的APC为-5.10%,呈逐年下降趋势(P<0.05)。男性伤害死亡率和标化死亡率均高于女性(P<0.05)。65岁~组居民伤害死亡率最高,为108.13/10万。伤害前五位死因依次为交通事故、自杀、中毒、跌落和溺水,死亡率分别为27.03/10万、7.84/10万、5.62/10万、5.08/10万和2.36/10万。男性交通事故死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(P<0.05);女性自杀死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(P<0.05);总跌落死亡率呈逐年上升趋势(P<0.05)。GM (1,1)模型预测2018-2021年凤城市居民伤害死亡率将逐年下降,分别为48.00/10万、44.15/10万、40.61/10万和37.35/10万。结论 2009-2017年凤城市居民伤害死亡率呈逐年下降趋势,2018-2021年仍可能继续下降。男性和65岁以上老年人是高危人群,交通事故和跌落为主要死因。

Objective To learn the trend of death from injury in Fengcheng residents from 2009 to 2017 and predict from 2018 to 2021,in order to provide the basis for injury prevention and control. Methods All cause of death monitoring data and demographic data of Fengcheng from 2009 to 2017 were collected,injury mortality,standardized mortality and annual change percentage(APC) were calculated,and GM(1,1) was established to predict the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021. Results From 2009 to 2017,the injury death rate in Fengcheng was 52.68 per 100 000 and the standardized death rate was 46.50 per 100 000. The APC of the total standardized mortality was -5.10%,showing a decreasing trend year by year(P<0.05). The injury mortality and standardized mortality in males were higher than that in female(both P <0.05). The highest injury mortality lay in the group aged 65 years and above,which was 108.13 per 100 000. The top five causes of injury death were traffic accident,suiside,poisoning,fall and drowning,their mortality rate were 27.03 per 100 000,7.84 per 100 000,5.62 per 100 000,5.08 per 100 000 and 2.36 per 100 000,respectively. The mortality of traffic accident in males and suicide in females showed a decreasing trend(P<0.05),while the mortality of fall showed an increasing trend(all P<0.05). The model of GM (1,1) predicted that the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021 would be 48.00 per 100 000,44.15 per 100 000,40.61 per 100 000 and 37.35 per 100 000,which showed a decreasing trend year by year. Conclusion The injury death rates in Fengcheng dropp year by year from 2009 to 2017 and will probably keep dropping from 2018 to 2021. Men and people aged 65 years or over are at high risk of death from injury,traffic accident and fall are the main causes.