基于Crystal Ball的泥沙来源指纹判别及不确定性评价

Evaluation on the Fingerprint Identifying of Sediment Source Based on Crystal Ball and Its Uncertainty

土壤固有的空间变异性及对侵蚀强度响应程度的不同,造成利用采集的少量样品中指纹因子的平均值或中位数来表征物源或泥沙时存在较大的不确定性,进而影响物源贡献判别结果的可靠性。已有的蒙特卡洛模拟算法通常基于较为复杂的计算机语言,对一般研究者来说具有一定的挑战性。介绍一种简便快捷的分析软件Crystal Ball,并结合实例分析了其在流域泥沙来源判别中的应用。

Due to the soil intrinsic spatial variability and the difference of responses to erosion intensity,therefore,using the average value or the median of fingerprint factors of a few collected samples to represent the origin or sediment,it has considerable uncertainty and then will affect the reliability of the results of source contribution discrimination.The existed Monte Carlo Method usually is based on more complicated computer language and there are certain challenges for general researchers.The paper introduced Crystal Ball,which was simple and fast analysis software to analyze the application to the sediment source discrimination of a river basin by examples.