迁飞性害虫草地贪夜蛾在我国的潜在地理分布

Potential geographical distribution of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in China

草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda,又称秋黏虫,起源于美洲,两年内扩散至非洲撒哈拉以南地区,自2018年底入侵我国云南以来,5个月内已扩散至我国十余个省、市(自治区)。本研究基于MaxEnt分别利用草地贪夜蛾目前在全球的所有分布点以及全年分布点(去除季节性分布点)两套分布数据分别预测该虫在我国的潜在地理分布,以期为有关部门对草地贪夜蛾的监测防控提供理论依据。结果表明,我国海南、云南、广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、四川、重庆、湖北、安徽、江苏等省需对草地贪夜蛾进行全年监测及防控,在春、夏、秋季,山东、河南、河北、北京、天津、山西、陕西、宁夏、甘肃、青海、内蒙古、新疆、辽宁等省、市(自治区)也需对该虫进行监测防控。关于该虫的潜在地理分布及潜在经济损失的相关研究仍需进一步开展。

Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae),the fall armyworm,native to America,has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years.It has invaded China in the end of 2018,and spread to ten more provinces within five months.This study used two datasets of all distribution and year-round distribution worldwide of the fall armyworm respectively to predict its potential geographical distribution in China based on MaxEnt in order to offer the theory evidence to the related departments.The results showed that year-round surveillance should be done in Hainan,Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guizhou,Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei,Anhui,Jiangsu provinces,and seasonal surveillance in spring,summer and autumn should be done in Shandong,Henan,Hebei,Beijing,Tianjin,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang and Liaoning.Further research of potential geographical distribution and potential economic loss are needed.