基于主成分分析的郑州市小蜂螨暴发风险等级评价

Outbreak risk level of Tropilaelaps mites in Zhengzhou based on principal component analysis

小蜂螨作为亚洲地区主要的蜜蜂害虫,严重阻碍了蜂产业的健康稳定发展。定量描述小蜂螨的暴发风险等级可以为该螨的早期防控提供一定的科学依据。本研究根据郑州市1991年至2010年的气象数据,利用主成分分析法将小蜂螨暴发地的6个相关气象指标转换成3个相互独立的综合指标,再对综合指标值进行加权相加得到各年小蜂螨暴发风险的综合评价值,并对其进行等级划分,分别得到各年小蜂螨的暴发风险等级。其中除2006年外,其余年份均与实际调查结果相符,其等级评价正确率达90%。根据不同的暴发风险等级,需要采取不同的防御手段,特别是对当年小蜂螨暴发风险等级较高的地区应加强监测,做好防治工作。

As a damaging pest of honeybee throughout Asia,Tropilaelaps mites seriously hindered the healthy and stable development of bee industry.Quantitatively depicting the outbreak risk level of Tropilaelaps mites can provide a scientific basis for early prevention and control.The meteorological data from 1991 to 2010 in Zhengzhou were analyzed.By using principal component analysis,six related meteorological indices were converted into three independent comprehensive indices.Weighted summation of the comprehensive indices resulted in annual comprehensive evaluation values of the outbreak risk,which were then classified.The annual outbreak risk levels of Tropilaelaps mites were obtained.The results showed that the risk levels were consistent with the actual survey results except 2006,with an accuracy rate of 90%.According to different outbreak risk levels,different prevention methods should be adopted.Especially in the areas with higher outbreak risk level,the prevention and control should be strengthened.