亚洲新兴市场国家的外汇储备适度规模研究——基于修正的阿格沃尔模型的实证分析

Research on Appropriate Scale of the Foreign Exchange Reserve in the Emerging Asian Markets Countries——Empirical Analysis Based on the Modified Agarwal Model

本文以外汇储备的职能为基础来划分其需求层次,建立了外汇储备适度规模测算模型,分析亚洲新兴市场国家的外汇储备适度规模,选取中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国五个发展中国家作为研究对象,研究该五国的外汇储备规模问题。从这一新角度划分新兴市场国家外汇储备适度规模区间,为新兴市场国家外汇储备管理提供理论支持。实证分析中,通过测算亚洲新兴市场国家2000—2015年的外汇储备适度规模区间,得出了相关结论:中国、印度、马来西亚、泰国四个国家的外汇储备逐渐偏离外汇储备规模上限,中国更是比其他四国大规模偏离。但是印度尼西亚则长期处于外汇储备规模下限,外汇储备量一直处于短缺状态,但是未来有望突破。而印度的外汇储备量长期维持在适度规模区间内得益于其良好的外汇储备管理政策。最后借鉴处于不同外汇储备规模下的新兴市场国家的成功经验,提出改善我国外储的相关建议。

Based on the function of foreign exchange reserve,this article has divide the hierarchy of needs of foreign exchange Reserve,established the computing model of the appropriate scale of the foreign exchange reserve and selected 5 developing countries,like China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia and Thailand as the study objects of the emerging market countries.This article has studied the scale of the foreign exchange reserve of the five countries.Define the interval of the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve of the emerging market countries from the new angel,so as to provide the beneficial reference for the management of the foreign exchange reserve of the emerging market countries.During the empirical analysis,through measuring the interval of the proper scale of the foreign exchange reserve of emerging market countries from 2000 to 2015,the relevant conclusions have been reached:the foreign exchange reserve of the four countries--China,India,Malaysia and Thailand have gradually deviated from the upper limit of the scale of foreign exchange reserve.And compared with other four countries,China has seen more large-scale deviation.However,Indonesia has stayed in the down limit of the scale of foreign exchange reserve for a very long time and the amount of foreign exchange reserve stays in the status of short supply.However,in the future,it has the possibility to break through.And Indian good foreign exchange reserve management policies make its foreign exchange reserve stay in the interval of proper scale.In the end,aiming at the experience of emerging market countries,whose foreign exchange scales stay in different status,the article has put forward relevant suggestions for reference for China.