南昌至厦门(福州)高速铁路运量预测研究

The monographic study of the passenger flow of Nanchang-Xiamen(Fuzhou) high speed Railway

南昌至厦门(福州)高铁是京港(台)通道的重要补充,是福银通道的组成部分。为合理把握本线在路网中的功能定位以及项目所承担的运量,本文首先对相关通道分工进行研究分析,确定本线是厦漳泉、福莆宁与赣大部、皖南、鄂、西北地区的客运主通道;根据区域路网分配得到本线承担的趋势运量;根据logit模型得到本线承担的公路、民航转移运量;根据诱增率计算诱增运量;汇总趋势、转移、诱增运量,得到本线客流预测结论。最后对本线承担的客流特点进行分析。

Nanchang-Xiamen(Fuzhou) high speed Railway is an integral part of the Beijing-Hong Kong(Taiwan) channel, it is also the part of the Fuzhou-Yinchuan channel. In order to grasp the functional orientation of the line in the road network and the flow of the project, this paper first analyzes the division of labor between the related channels, and obtains that the line is the main channel of the Xiazhangquan metropolitan area, Fupuning metropolitan area and most of Jiangxi, South of Anhui, Hubei, North-west region, and so on. According to the regional road network distribution, the trend flow undertaken by the line is obtained. And the passenger flow of the road and civil transport capacity obtained through the logit model. the induced flow is calculated according to the lure rate, then, the trend flow, transferred flow and induced flow are summarized, the line passenger flow are forecasted, Finally, the assumed passenger flow characteristics were analyzed.