供给侧结构性改革背景下的税收结构优化研究——基于实验宏观经济学方法

Tax Structure Optimization under the Supply-Side Structural Reform: Using an Experimental Macroeconomics Method

在我国当前的供给侧结构性改革背景下,提高直接税比重已成为调整现行税收结构的重要方向。据此,本文基于实验宏观经济学方法,以生命周期跨期选择模型为基本模型,在实验室条件下考察了不同税收结构对居民消费路径与福利水平的影响。实验结果发现,税收结构中的直接税比重与居民福利水平存在一种类似于倒U型的关系,即较低的直接税比重与较高的直接税比重都会损害居民的长期福利,而当直接税与间接税的比重相接近时,居民可获得较高福利水平,且这一实验结论未随被试者的学习效应而发生改变。其政策启示是,尽管我国当前的直接税比重与世界主要国家相比偏低,但在优化税收结构的过程中应把握好直接税比重的提升力度,确保直接税与间接税在整体上维持相对接近的比例范围,从而实现居民福利水平的稳定与提升。

Under the background of China's supply-side structural reform,increasing the proportion of direct tax has become an important policy to adjust the current tax structure.Based on the experimental macroeconomics method,this paper takes the intertemporal decision model as the experimental model and investigates the impact of different tax structures on residents' consumption path and welfare.The experimental results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the direct tax proportion and the welfare level of residents.That is,lower direct tax proportion and higher direct tax proportion will decrease residents' long-term welfare. However,when the proportion of direct tax and indirect tax is close to each other, residents can get a higher level of welfare,and this result does not change when subjects have a learning effect.The policy implication is that although the proportion of direct tax in China is relatively low compared with that of other major countries,we should improve the proportion of direct tax appropriately,ensuring that the proportion of direct tax and indirect tax is maintained relatively close to each other,so as to stabilize and improve the residents' welfare.