对发展中国家脆弱性的评估

Assessment Of Vulnerability In Developing Countries

近年来,全球气候变化的影响逐渐增加,不利于许多发展中国家的国家安全与稳定,利用风险分析理论,讨论气候变化对一些发展中国家的脆弱程度的影响,并建立了相应的评估指标体系与数学模型。通过熵权TOPSIS方法和层次分析法计算出各国的脆弱性指数,并通过建立灰度预测模型来分析各个国家未来稳定程度的发展趋势。

In recent years,the impact of global climate change has gradually increased,which is detrimental to the national security and stability of many developing countries.The risk analysis theory has been used to discuss the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of some developing countries,and a corresponding evaluation index system has been established.With mathematical model.The country's vulnerability index was calculated by the entropy TOPSIS method and the analytic hierarchy process,and the development trend of the future stability of each country was analyzed by establishing a gray prediction model.