基于LMDI模型的黑龙江省碳排放影响因素研究

Study on Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions in Heilongjiang Province Based on LMDI Model

首先根据黑龙江省不同年份分行业不同能源的消费特征,同时考虑到数据的可获取性,以IPCC(2006)为标准,结合中国国家标准的相关规定,构建出黑龙江省碳排放量的测度方法,并用该方法进一步估算出黑龙江省2007-2016年十年的碳排放量时间序列数据.然后需要对各年数据进行动态演变分析,根据指数分解法的优点,利用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)构建指标分解模型.并依据总体碳排放量分阶段定量分析黑龙江省2007-2016年碳排放变化的影响因素.根据分析,表明黑龙江省在经济发展过程中比较重视经济结构方面的优化,经济转型有了一定成果,但是在工业能源利用方面并没用明显改善,工业中的“高耗能,高碳排放”工业部门比重有所增加;能源消费结构中仍以传统一次能源为主,清洁能源比重较低;能源利用效率不高,新技术、新科技在能源利用方面没有发挥应用的作用.

Firstly,according to the different energy consumption characteristics of various industries in different years in Heilongjiang Province,taking into account the availability of data,using IPCC (2006) as the standard and combining the relevant provisions of China s national standards,a method for measuring carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province was constructed. This method can be used to estimate the time series data of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province from 2007 to 2016. Then the dynamic evolution of each years data need to be analyzed. According to the merits of the exponential decomposition method,the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method ( LMDI) was used to construct the index decomposition model. Based on the total carbon emissions,the quantitative analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province from 2007 to 2016 was carried out. According to the analysis,it was shown that Heilongjiang Province paid more attention to the optimization of economic structure in the economic development process,and had made grate progress in the economic transformation. However,there was no significant improvement in the use of industrial energy,and the proportion of " high energy consumption and high carbon emissions",industry has increased,the energy consumption structure is still dominated by traditional primary energy sources,and the proportion of clean energy is low;energy utilization efficiency is not high,and new technologies and new technologies have not played a role in energy utilization.