农村人口转型对二元经济结构收敛的影响——基于引入劳动力供给数量与质量因素的二元经济收敛模型的分析

The Impact of Rural Population Transition on the Convergence of Dual Economic Structure: An Analysis of Binary Economic Convergence Model based on the Quantity and Quality of Labor Supply

采用工业化中期阶段为起点1995-2015年全国农村省级面板数据,运用统计性描述和计量分析方法,基于农业投入要素结构和农业发展方式转变视角,本文研究农村人口转型对二元经济结构收敛的影响、作用路径及其变化趋势。研究发现:从高生育率的数量偏好到高人力资本投资率的质量偏好为特征的农村人口转型对二元经济结构收敛具有显著作用。刘-费-拉模型仅指出了二元经济结构收敛的必要条件,我国二元经济结构的收敛应以农村人口转型为充分条件,在农村人口生育率下降的同时通过不断提升人力资本水平,促使农业部门从“马尔萨斯稳态”转变为持续增长稳态,进而达到二元经济结构的一元化转变。

Based on the panel data of rural provinces from 1995 to 2015 in the mid-stage of industrialization, using statistical descriptions and quantitative analysis methods, this paper studies the impact of rural population transformation on the convergence of dual economic structure, the path of action and its changing trend from the perspective of the structure of agricultural input factors and the transformation of agricultural development mode.It is found that the transition of rural population, characterized by the quantitative preference of high fertility rate to the qualitative preference of high human capital investment rate, has a significant effect on the convergence of dual economic structure.Liu-Fei-La model only points out the necessary conditions for the convergence of dual economic structure. The convergence of dual economic structure in China should be based on the transformation of rural population. While the fertility rate of rural population is declining, the level of human capital should be continuously raised to promote the transformation of the agricultural sector from “Malthusian steady state” to a steady state of sustained growth, thus achieving the unified transformation of dual economic structure.