中国的金融结构演进与监管周期

The Evolution of China’s Financial Structure and the Regulatory Cycle

站在新中国成立70周年的历史节点上,系统梳理中国金融发展的典型事实,概括总结中国的金融监管周期,厘清金融结构变动与金融监管变迁的理论逻辑关系,对金融业更好地服务实体经济、守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线,以及推进金融供给侧改革和金融高质量发展都至关重要。中国作为一个新兴的发展中国家,金融结构在市场“看不见的手”和政府“看得见的手”的共同作用下不断演进优化;而金融监管则呈现出一定的周期性,大致历经了严格监管-适度监管-强化监管-适度监管-强化监管五个阶段,当前处于强化监管时期。从金融功能观视角来看,经济发展、金融结构与金融监管之间并非存在以往认为的单向关系,而是存在彼此作用的反馈循环机制。

With the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, it is significant to analyze the typical facts of China's financial development and China*s financial regulatory cycle, as well as clarify the theoretical and logical relationship between the change of financial structure and the change of financial regulation. On the basis of these, the financial sector can crucially contribute to better service the real economy, keep the bottom line of avoiding systemic financial risks, and advance supply-side reform and high-quality development. As an emerging developing country, China's financial structure is constantly evolving and improving under the combined effect of the "invisible hand" of the market and the "visible hand" of the government. The financial regulation usually experiences certain periodicity, which traverses five stages of strict supervision - moderate supervision - intensive supervision-moderate supervision-intensive supervision, and it is at the stage of intensive supervision presently. From the perspective of financial function, there is no onedimensional relationship among economic development, financial structure and financial regulation, but a repeated feedback mechanism that economic development, financial structure and financial regulation influence each other.