中国城镇化水平和人力资本对全要素生产率的影响

Influences of China’s urbanization level and human capital on the Total Factor Productivity

从人力资本结构高级化和异质型特征两个角度,分别构建了中介效应和交互效应模型,分析了城镇化推进过程中实现全要素生产率(TFP)驱动的有效路径。结果显示:城镇化推进过程中通过提高人力资本结构高级化程度可间接对全要素生产率和技术进步(Tech)产生显著促进效应,而对技术效率(Effch)影响不显著;城镇化推进过程中分别结合初级人力资本和中级人力资本水平将对全要素生产率、技术进步和技术效率产生负的交互效应,结合高级人力资本水平将产生正的交互效应;随着城镇化推进过程中初级人力资本和中级人力资本水平的下降以及高级人力资本水平的上升,技术进步和技术效率将会显著提高,进而驱动全要素生产率增长;采用平均受教育年限衡量人力资本,亦存在显著中介效应,但其显著低估了人力资本对TFP的促进程度。

Based on the two perspectives of advanced structure and heterogeneous characteristics of human capital,this essay establishes two models of mediating effect and interaction effect,and empirically analyses the effective paths of TFP driving in urbanization.The results show that:In the process of urbanization,it indirectly promotes TFP and Tech through promoting the upgrading of human capital structure,but the influence on Effch is not significant;In the process of urbanization,the combination of primary human capital and senior human capital has negative interaction effect on TFP,Tech and Effch,while the combination of higher human capital has positive interaction effect;That is to say,with the urbanization,the decline level of primary human capital and senior human capital,and the rise level of higher human capital,that have significantly increased Tech and Effch,and then promoted TFP;In the robustness test,there is also a significant intermediary effect in measuring human capital by the average length of education,but it significantly underestimates the promotion of human capital to TFP.