基于多维政策实体及其关系的科技政策演化路径揭示方法研究

Revealing Sci-Tech Policy Evolution with Entity Relationship

【目的】利用科技政策推进中产生的各类文件中的知识内容来揭示政策的演化关系。【方法】基于政策文本中多维政策实体及实体之间的多种关系,构建从直接语义关系、直接共现关系、间接共现关系、关联路径衰减指数4个维度综合计算科技政策实体关联的多指标模型,结合实体时间属性,揭示科技政策演化路径。【结果】揭示了实验议题相关的科技政策举措多条发展路径,以及特定实体的前序、后继发展路径。通过人工比对,阈值大于0.5时实验集中发现的政策路径有80%真实存在。【局限】此方法的计算结果依靠人工比对和专家判读,目前无法提供更有效的定量验证方法。同时,验证的数据集合较小。【结论】本文探索了基于科技政策文本自动揭示科技政策演化的思路,拓展科技政策分析的深度,丰富科技政策演化研究的角度。

[Objective] The paper tries to describe the evolutionary path of science and technology(S&T) policies using knowledge from documents generated in policy promotion.[Methods] We proposed a multi-index model with direct semantic relationship, direct co-occurrence relationship, in-direct co-occurrence relationship and link path attenuation index. The S&T policy entities and their relationships used in the proposed model were extracted from the policy texts. We described the S&T policy evolution paths along with time properties and then analyzed the structural features of policy entities and their relationship.[Results] We found the evolution paths of these policies at different stages, and 80% of the retrieved paths were existing in the real world.[Limitations] The proposed model relies on human comparison and interpretation. Besides, the sample size needs to be expanded.[Conclusions] This study reveals the evolutionary path of S&T policies based on related records. It expands the scope and depth of S&T policy analysis research.