摘要
气象灾害会影响电力的持续正常供应,提高了对电力系统应急保障能力的要求.为对气象灾害持续影响下电力系统的应急保障能力进行风险评估,在气象灾害发生的三个阶段分别进行风险识别,通过故障分析构建了基于时间序列的三级风险评价指标体系,然后利用贝叶斯网络进行风险预测和风险诊断.结果表明,基于构建的指标体系,贝叶斯网络能对气象灾害下电力的应急保障能力进行有效的风险评估.
Continuous and normal power supply can be influenced by meteorological disasters,so power system is in demand of more powerful capacity of emergency support.In order to assess risk of emergency support capability of power system under meteorological disasters,risk identification was carried out in three stages along with disasters.A three-level index system for risk assessment was constructed by fault analysis.Then in causal Bayesian network based on compiled index system,risk prediction and risk diagnosis were carried out.The results showed that Bayesian network can effectively assess power's emergency support capability under meteorological disasters.
作者
谌文佳
李金林
白鹏飞
李皓
CHEN Wen-jia;LI Jin-lin;BAI Peng-fei;LI Hao(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Safety and Environmental Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第13期94-100,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
北京城市能源系统气候变化适应性分析技术研发(PXM2018_178215_000004)
关键词
电力系统
应急保障能力
气象灾害
风险评估
贝叶斯网络
power system
emergency support capability
meteorological disaster
risk assessment
Bayesian network
