冲突信息条件下的风险沟通建模与仿真

Modeling and Simulation of Risk Communication under Conflict Information Conditions

从系统理论角度出发,分析影响冲突信息条件下风险沟通的主要因素。通过局域世界模型构造方法还原了社会网络结构,在此基础上研究正面和负面两种冲突信息同时在社会网络中的连续传播现象;并利用多主体建模仿真方法,结合风险沟通理论设计智能体属性,考察微观智能体在宏观社会网络中的行为涌现情况。通过建模仿真分析发现:公众所处的社会网络位置、社会网络的平均度、初始正面和负面风险信息的比例、公众间的信任水平和公众的风险能力自信水平都会给风险沟通带来影响。根据结果提出相应的风险沟通对策建议。

From the perspective of system theory,the main factors affecting risk communication under conflict information conditions are studied.The social network structure is restored by the local world model construction method.On this basis,positive and negative conflict information are simultaneously studied in the social network.The multi-agent modeling and simulation method is combined with the risk communication theory to design the properties of agents,and the emergence of micro-agent in the macro-social network is investigated.Through modeling and simulation analysis,it is found that the social network location of the public,the average degree of social network,the proportion of initial positive and negative risk information,the level of trust between the public and the level of confidence of the public’s risk ability will have an impact on risk communication.According to the results,we propose measures to improve the effectiveness of risk communication.