“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险的时空格局及驱动机制

Spatial Temporal Pattern and Driving Mechanism of Direct Investment Risk in Countries along the Belt and Road

选取“一带一路”沿线56个国家为研究对象,结合相关数据,采用熵权法计算“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险,使用自然断点法将各国分为高风险区、较高风险区、中等风险区、较低风险区和低风险区5类不同的风险区域,分析其时空格局,并采用地理探测器法研究其驱动机制。结果表明:自2013年以来,“一带一路”沿线国家中低风险区和较低风险区国家数量减少,高风险区国家数量增加;较低风险区的国家分布于西亚、南亚和东南亚,中等风险区的国家大多分布在中东欧地区,高风险区和较高风险区的国家数量多且分布广泛。“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险时空格局的主要驱动因子为总储备、GDP、政府效能、人均GDP、法制程度、城镇人口和监管质量;各指标因子经过两两交互之后对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险格局的影响力均呈现相互增强或非线性增强。

By selecting 56 countries as the study object and combining the relevant data, the direct investment risk of countries along the Belt and Road was calculated by entropy method, the natural breakpoint method was used to divide the countries into 5-class risk area including a high-risk area, a higher-risk area, a middle-risk area, a lower risk area and a low-risk area and the space-time pattern were analyzed, and the driving mechanism was studied by Geodetector method. The results showed that since 2013 , the number of low-risk and lower-risk areas decreased and the number of high-risk countries increased in the countries along the Belt and Road. The countries in the lower risk areas were distributed in West Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, and the countries in the medium risk areas were mostly in the Central and Eastern Europe Region, and the countries in the high risk areas and the higher risk areas were more and more widely distributed. The main driving factors of the spatial and temporal pattern of direct investment risk in the countries along the Belt and Road were total reserves, gross domestic product, government efficiency, per capita gross domestic product, legal system, and urban population and supervision quality . The influence of each index factor on the risk pattern of direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road showed mutual or non-linear enhancement after pairwise interaction.