贸易融资对经常项目资本流动的影响——以浙江省为例

The Impact of Trade Finance on Capital Flows of Current Account:Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example

近年来,为融资而构造贸易的趋势愈演愈烈,贸易融资逐渐演变为企业跨境套利的主要手段,对我国跨境资金流动形成重要影响。基于浙江省银行月度调查统计数据,通过VAR模型研究不同贸易融资方式对国际资本跨境流动的影响程度,研究发现出口贸易融资导致经常项下资本流入,进口贸易融资导致经常项下资本流出。通过方差分解,发现进口贸易融资变动是导致当前经常项下资本流动变化的主要原因。因此为防范跨境资金流动风险,需要加强打击构造性贸易融资尤其是加强进口贸易融资真实性审核。

The trend of building trade for financing is becoming more and more intense. Trade financing has gradually evolved into the main means of cross-border arbitrage,which has an important impact on the cross-border capital flow in China. Based on the monthly survey statistics of Zhejiang ,this paper studies the impact of different trade financing modes on cross-border flows of international capital through the VAR model. The research confirms that export trade financing leads to regular capital inflows,and the import trade financing leads to regular capital outflows. Through variance decomposition,this paper further finds that the change of import trade financing is the main reason for the change of capital flows under current account. Therefore,in order to guard against the risk of cross-border capital flows,we need to strengthen the fight against structured trade finance,in particular,strengthen the authenticity audit of import trade financing.