城镇化进程中社会安全风险评估指标权重赋值研究——基于层次分析法

Study on the Weight Assignment of Social Security Risk Assessment Indicators in the Urbanization Process——Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

中国从速度城镇化向深度城镇化转变,在这个过程中面临的挑战和风险也不断加剧,协调城镇化进程与社会稳定之间的关系至关重要。因此需要重视社会安全风险评估,建构专业有效的社会安全风险评估指标体系。面对复杂的社会安全风险评估指标体系,权重赋值尤为重要。现阶段,我国社会安全风险评估主要采取经验判断的方式来进行权重赋值,受主观影响程度较大;运用层次分析法,将社会安全风险作为一级指标,城镇化经济发展、生态环境、发展公平、人口管理风险、社会治安风险、社会保障管理风险等12个为二级指标,以及刑事案件数量、基尼系数、城乡居民收入比等39个为三级指标构建层次模型和评价矩阵,计算指标权重,有效地发挥出定量与定性评估方法的双重优势,使社会安全风险评估更具合理性,并从实践与理论层面有效推进社会安全风险防范。

In the process of the in-depth transformation of urbanization,China is faced with new challenges and risks,and social stability is crucial issue of importance. We should attach importance to social security risk assessment and construct a professional and effective index system. At the present stage,the risk assessment of social stability in China mainly adopts the method of empirical judgment to assign the weight,which is greatly influenced by subjective factors. Using the analytic hierarchy process,taking social security risk as the primary indicator,urbanization and economic development,ecological environment,fair development,the population management risk,the risk of social security,social security management risk of the 12 as the secondary indicators,as well as the number of criminal cases,the gini coefficient,the income of urban and rural residents of the 39 for level 3 indicators building hierarchy model and evaluation matrix. The calculation of index weight,effectively play the dual advantages of quantitative and qualitative evaluation method,make social security risk assessment more reasonable,and promote effectively social security risk prevention from the practice and theory level.