二孩政策及延迟退休下的中国人口结构测算:2015-2050年

China Demographic Structure’s Estimation under Two-Child Policy and Delay Retirement:2015-2050

以2015年全国1.55%人口抽样调查为基础,根据分年龄分性别死亡率、分年龄分性别劳动参与率、延迟退休计划、分年龄一般生育率、调查意愿生育率、总和生育率收敛性、出生人口性别比收敛性等信息,并控制2050年中等发达国家水平,全方位数值模拟了2015-2050年的中国人口结构。测算结果显示:在实施二孩政策、延迟退休的背景下,中国未来的出生人口呈现波动中下降趋势,总人口整体呈倒U型。二孩政策和延迟退休在一定程度上减缓了育龄妇女人口和经济活动人口的下降趋势,但该作用并不具有持续性,也就是未来更有效地释放人口红利、缓解人口老龄化,还需要更为深化的人口改革政策。

Based on the 1.55% China's population sampling survey in 2015 ,the article simula ted the 2015 - 2050 China's demographic structure, which contains death rate of different age and gender, labor participation rate of different age and gender, delay retirement, fertility rate of different age, total fertility rate, sex ratio at birth, and assumes that China will be a developed coun try in 2050. The result shows that: under Two-Child Policy and delay retirement, China's birth pop ulation shows a downward trend in a fluctuation;China's population shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. To a certain extent, Two-Child Policy and delay retirement do not make a persistent influence on alleviating social problems of demographic dividend and aging population, which means that the government of China needs to deepen the reform of population policy.