安徽省一季稻的综合气象灾害风险区划

Integrated Meteorological Disaster Risk Division of Mid-season Rice in Anhui Province

选用安徽省1980-2011年一季稻的逐年产量资料,利用5年直线滑动平均法,分析安徽省各县市的一季稻气象产量和趋势产量,得到研究区的水稻气象产量平均减产率,统计各县市灾害的发生频次,采用小波分析法分析其周期规律;采用灾年平均减产率、变异系数、风险指数和抗灾性能构建水稻综合风险评估模型,对安徽省地区一季稻生产的农业气象灾害进行风险区划;对安徽省地区一季稻生产的农业气象灾害进行风险区划,并对结果进行检验。结果表明:(1)安徽省地区一季稻产量的年代变化主要在1990年以前和2003年左右;(2)1980-2011年水稻受灾频次以11a和18a时间尺度上的峰值最大,是安徽省水稻受灾频次的第一主周期,Morlet小波方差值在7a、11a、18a、30a内出现峰值;(3)水稻综合风险度基本呈“北高南低”的趋势。该研究通过综合评估水稻农业气象灾害,对保障安徽地区粮食生产安全、水稻生产者的积极性和收益稳定性有着重要意义。

Based on the data of mediumseason rice yields from 1980 to 2011 in An Hui Province with using five-year linear sliding average method to isolate the trend yield and the meteorological yield..Statisticsing the frequency of oc. currence of the disaster counties based on the average yield reduction of rice,and analyze cycle regularity wavelet analysis. The model of damage risk evaluation is consisted of four parts,including average yield reduction ratio,the variation coefficient、the risk index and the disaster index.The authors calculated the risk degree by the model of damage risk evaluation,and then achieved the risk regionalization of agricultural meteorological disasters for medi. umseason rice in the An Hui Province and the results were tested.The modest research shows that:(1)The age changes of the rice production in the An Hui Province is mainly before 1990s and around 2003;(2)The frequency of disaster had obviously periodic variation with 7a,11a、18a、and 30a temporal scales from 1980 to 2011. 11a and 18a is first major period;(3)Rice comprehensive risk is basicallypresented the north higher than the south. The paper mainly through the comprehensive assessment of agricultural agrometeorological disasters,so as to provide a direc. tive to the regional agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation,profit and avoid disadvantages,and achieve stable grain production and high yield.