中美贸易摩擦的吸引力与可达性机制研究

Research on the Attraction and Accessibility Mechanism of Sino-US Trade Friction

伴随着中美双边贸易摩擦规模的持续扩大,特别是特朗普政府对华政策呈现出由“接触政策”朝向“规锁政策”方向转变,中美间贸易摩擦愈加表现为高度复杂性与广域多层次的特点,而这无异于对双边经贸往来趋势及两国关系前景具有显著的负面影响。基于这一现实考虑,结合当前中美贸易摩擦的现状,分别从时间维度以及贸易摩擦的程度、形式、范围、性质与层面等方面对中美贸易摩擦趋势进行预判,并基于“引力模型”实证分析了综合贸易与竞争法(301调查)、技术性贸易壁垒(T BT)以及反倾销措施这三类核心壁垒对中美双边贸易“吸引力”的影响,以及对两国贸易关系“可达性”的作用机制。

With the continuous increase of bilateral trade between China and the United States, especially the Trump administration’ s China policy has changed from a“ contact policy” to a“ regulatory policy”. The trade friction between China and the United States is increasingly highly complex and the characteristics of multi-level wide-area, and this undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on the bilateral economic and trade trends and the prospects of bilateral relations. Based on this realistic consideration, combined with the current status of Sino-US friction, this paper prejudges the trade friction trend between China and the United States from the time dimension and the degree, form, scope, nature and level of trade friction. Based on the “g ravitational model”, the paper analyzes the impact of the three types of core barriers of comprehensive trade and competition law (301 investigation), technical barriers to trade (TBT) and anti-dumping measures on the “a ttractiveness” of Sino-US bilateral trade, as well as trade between the two countries. The mechanism of action of the relationship“ reachability”.