区域(临汾)水分相关气象因子变化及其对小麦产量的影响

Regional Moisture-dependent Meteorological Factors’ Change Affect Wheat Yield in Linfen

为有效提供气候变化未来情景相适应的栽培途径,对1987—2017年区域(临汾)与水分相关的降水量、气温、10cm地温、蒸发量、风速、相对湿度、日照时数7个气象因子开展了动态变化、因子间相关性及其对小麦产量的影响研究。结果表明:各年小麦生育期气象因子动态变化特征为降水量、平均气温和平均10cm地温呈递增趋势,而蒸发量、日照时数、平均相对湿度和平均风速则呈递减趋势;小麦生产年度各季节蒸发量为夏>春>秋>冬,各月份蒸发量为6>7>5>8>4>3>9>10>2>11>1>12。各年小麦生育期气象因子间相关性为平均气温与蒸发量呈负相关,平均风速、日照时数与蒸发量呈正相关,相关气象因子间的变异系数为降水量>蒸发量>平均风速>平均相对湿度>平均地温>日照时数>平均气温;小麦生产年度各季节、月份平均气温与蒸发量呈正相关。各气象因子与小麦产量的相关性为各年小麦生育期平均气温、平均10cm地温、日照时数与产量呈负相关,而平均相对湿度、蒸发量、平均风速则与产量呈正相关,降水量与产量均呈正相关,其中不同阶段降水量与产量的相关系数为生产年度>生育期>休闲期。该项研究可为小麦生产系统应对气候变化提供理论依据和技术支撑。

To provide suitable cultivating techniques of wheat under future climate change, the dynamic change, correlation and effect on wheat yield of seven moisture-dependent meteorological factors from 1987 to 2017 in Linfen were studied, including rainfall, temperature, soil temperature (10 cm), evaporation, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours. The results showed that the factors’dynamic variation characteristics were: in wheat growth stage each year, the rainfall, mean temperature and mean soil temperature (10 cm) increased progressively, however, evaporation, sunshine hours, mean relative humidity and mean wind speed decreased progressively;the evaporation of every season was summer> spring> autumn> winter in wheat production year, the evaporation of every month was 6>7>5>8>4>3>9>10> 2>11>1>12. Mean temperature was significantly and negatively correlated with evaporation;mean wind speed and sunshine hours were positively correlated with evaporation;the coefficient of variation was rainfall> evaporation> mean wind speed> mean relative humidity> mean soil temperature> sunshine hours> mean temperature;the mean temperature of every season and month were positively correlated with evaporation. In wheat growth stage, mean temperature, mean soil temperature (10 cm) and sunshine hours were negatively correlated with wheat yield;but mean relative humidity, evaporation, rainfall and mean wind speed were positively correlated with yield;rainfall was positively correlated with yield, and the correlation coefficient of different periods’rainfall with yield was production year> growth stage> fallow period. The study could provide technological support for wheat production under climate change.