民航飞机低空颠簸与地理环境因子相关性研究

Correlation Study of Low-Altitude Turbulence in Civil Aircraft with Geographical Environmental Factor

基于飞行品质监控大数据,对各机场区域低空颠簸频率进行统计。利用地形及气象观测数据,研究低空颠簸与环境因子的相关性。结果表明,飞机低空颠簸与地形起伏度、气温日较差以及风速有显著相关性。利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型进行拟合分析,发现上述环境因子的影响强度存在空间差异。地形起伏度与风速的影响强度均自东北向西南逐渐增大,气温日较差的影响强度自东南向西北再向东北逐渐增大。地理加权回归模型的调整R2达到0.512,说明模型的有效性很好。基于拟合模型对全国范围低空颠簸风险进行估计,获得颠簸风险分级空间分布图。研究结果对机场选址和飞行安全管理具有参考价值。

Based on the flight quality monitoring big data, statistics were made on the frequency of low-altitude airplane turbulence in various airport areas. Besides, using topographic and meteorological data, we analyzed the correlation between low-altitude airplane turbulence and environmental factors. The results indicate a significant correlation between the low-altitude airplane turbulence and relief amplitude, wind speed, and diurnal temperature range. Also, the spatial difference of the effect intensity of these environmental factors is revealed via geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. The effect intensity of relief amplitude and wind speed increase from northeast to southwest, while the effect intensity of diurnal temperature range increases from southeast to northwest then to northeast. The adjusted R2 of the model is 0.512, which means that the model is very effective.Based on the GWR model, we estimated the risk of low-altitude airplane turbulence on the national scale, and obtained the classification map of the risk. The research results have reference value for airport location and flight safety management.