需求侧气象敏感用电量特征分析

Characteristics Analysis of Demand-side Meteorological-sensitive Energy Consumption

利用气象行业标准中的气象敏感用电量条件指数,结合兰溪市1960—2017年逐日气象资料计算了各级气象敏感用电量日数,采用Morlet小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验等统计学方法分析了各级气象敏感用电量日数的年际变化及年平均各月不同级别气象敏感用电量日数分布特征,结果表明:气候变化总体对兰溪市低敏感用电量日数的增加有利,但是随着全球气候变暖,近年来极端天气的增加,影响了尖峰敏感用电量日数的增加。

On the basis of meteorological-sensitive energy consumption conditional index in meteorological industry standard and daily meteorological data of Lanxi from 1960 to 2017,the daily meteorological sensitive energy consumption at all levels was calculated;besides,Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test were used to analyze the interannual variation of meteorological-sensitive energy consumption days at all levels and the distribution characteristics of meteorological-sensitive energy consumption days at different levels in different months. The results show that climate change contributes to the increase of low sensitive energy consumption days;however,global warming and the increase of extreme weather have an impact on the peak sensitive energy consumption.