气候变化对国家脆弱性影响的计量分析——以苏丹为例

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on National Vulnerability——Take Sudan for example

考虑气候因素,选取影响国家脆弱性的指标建立适当的指标体系,基于模糊综合评价模型和典型相关分析方法,以苏丹为例度量气候因素对国家脆弱性的直接和间接影响。结果显示:气候变化能够通过直接和间接的方式影响苏丹的国家脆弱性,使其脆弱程度增加。通过ARIMA时间序列模型对碳排放量、温度、降水量等气候因素进行预测发现,气候的恶化可能导致苏丹2021年的脆弱程度进一步增加。

Considering the climate factors,we select the indicators affecting national vulnerability to establish an appropriate index system.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and canonical correlation analysis method,we take Sudan as an example to measure the direct and indirect impacts of climate factors on national vulnerability.The results show that climate change can directly and indirectly affect Sudan's national vulnerability and increase its vulnerability.The ARIMA time series model is used to predict climate factors such as carbon emissions,temperature and precipitation.It is found that the deterioration of climate may further increase the vulnerability of Sudan in 2021.