摘要
考虑气候因素,选取影响国家脆弱性的指标建立适当的指标体系,基于模糊综合评价模型和典型相关分析方法,以苏丹为例度量气候因素对国家脆弱性的直接和间接影响。结果显示:气候变化能够通过直接和间接的方式影响苏丹的国家脆弱性,使其脆弱程度增加。通过ARIMA时间序列模型对碳排放量、温度、降水量等气候因素进行预测发现,气候的恶化可能导致苏丹2021年的脆弱程度进一步增加。
Considering the climate factors,we select the indicators affecting national vulnerability to establish an appropriate index system.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and canonical correlation analysis method,we take Sudan as an example to measure the direct and indirect impacts of climate factors on national vulnerability.The results show that climate change can directly and indirectly affect Sudan's national vulnerability and increase its vulnerability.The ARIMA time series model is used to predict climate factors such as carbon emissions,temperature and precipitation.It is found that the deterioration of climate may further increase the vulnerability of Sudan in 2021.
作者
徐惠
胡颖
XU Hui;HU Ying(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030)
出处
《山东农业工程学院学报》
2019年第7期56-61,共6页
The Journal of Shandong Agriculture and Engineering University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“3-流猜想,Fulkerson-覆盖及相关问题”(项目编号:11601001)
关键词
脆弱性
模糊综合评价
典型相关分析
时间序列
vulnerability
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
canonical correlation analysis
time series