违法排污视角下京津冀工业颗粒物排放研究

On Industrial Particle Emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from Perspective of Pollution Violation

工业排放颗粒物是细颗粒物污染的重要来源。已有污染物排放核算研究关注企业的污染治理技术而忽略其违法排放行为,从而影响污染源识别和治理对策的精准性。在京津冀地区工业迅速增长和灰霾污染加重的背景下,本文运用情景分析法,引入企业违法排污参数,将企业对环境规制服从的差异性纳入工业颗粒物排放量核算框架,估算出2004年和2013年京津冀主要大气污染行业颗粒物产生量、最小排放量以及各种违法排污情景下的超标排放值。估算显示,工业颗粒物产生量和最低排放量相差几十倍甚至上百倍;随着企业违法排污行为的增加,颗粒物排放量急剧上升。在违法排污比例为15%的情景下,工业颗粒物排放量为430万吨,细颗粒物108万吨。京津冀灰霾治理须严控企业违法排污行为。

Industrial primary particle is one of main contributors to fine particle (PM2.5 ) pollution.Current researches usually assume that polluters obey environmental regulation completely, focus on abatement technology of firms and ignore pollution violation behavior.On the background of fast growth of industrial activities and aggravating fine particles pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper employs scenario method and takes into account of differences in firms.compliance with environmental regulation.It originally introduces pollution violation parameter into a framework of calculating industrial pollutant emission.It estimates the generating volume, minimum emission and emissions of primary particles and PM2.5 in the scenarios of pollution violation from industrial activities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2004 and 2013. It finds that (1) primary particles generated and minimally emit in year 2013 reach 27 million and 270 thousand tons respectively, and 15 million and 210 thousand tons in year 2004.Industrial particles generated and discharged in Beijing have both decreased obviously while minimum emission from Hebei province accounted 89.5 percent of regional emission, 9 percentage higher than that in 2004.(2) In the scenarios of pollution violation, the emission rises sharply with increase in pollution violation.One percent of pollution violation higher leads to 270 thousand tons of primary particle emission increment.Primary particle and fine particle from industrial discharge gets to 4 million and 1 million separately in the scenario of 15 percent of pollution violation.It suggests that environmental monitoring and enforcement must be strengthened and small enterprises, non-metal mineral manufacturing industries and rural areas where polluters cluster should become policy priorities.