经济增速放缓背景下农民工的就业压力感知

Employment Pressure Analysis of Rural Migrant Workers under the Context of Economy Slowdown

近年来中国经济增速的放缓不可避免地会对以农民工为代表的普通劳动者就业产生直接影响。本文使用2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从求职难度的变化和收入水平的变化等两个方面考察了在经济增速放缓的背景下,农民工就业压力感知的现状、特点与影响因素。研究发现:38.76%的农民工感觉近两年求职难度增加,34.06%的农民工近一年内出现了收入水平下降。基于Heckman两步法的计量检验显示:农民工的就业压力显著高于城镇户籍的流动人口,并且中老年农民工的就业压力显著更高,女性农民工的求职压力大于男性、但收入下降的压力却低于男性。而随着人力资本水平的提高,农民工的就业压力显著下降。雇主或从事自营工作,以及在个体及其他所有制就业的农民工,其收入水平下降的可能性显著更高。华南和华东地区农民工的就业压力显著低于其他地区,并且就业压力在不同行业之间也存在着显著差异。

China's economy slowdown will inevitably have a direct impact on the employment of migrant workers. This paper analyzes China Migrants Dynamic Survey data in 2017 to explore the situation, characteristics and determinants of migrant workers' employment pressure situation in the context of economic slowdown from the perspective of the level of difficulty in job seeking and income change. The study found that 38.76% of migrant workers state that the job seeking difficulty has increased in the past two years, and 34.06% of those have experienced an income decline in the past year. The result of Heckman's two-step method shows that employment pressure of migrant workers is significantly higher than that of urban migrants, and employment pressure of middle-aged and older migrant workers is significantly higher. The job seeking pressure of the female is greater than that of male, but their pressure of income declines is lower than men’s. With the improvement of human capital, employment pressure of migrant workers has dropped significantly. Employers or self-employed, as well as those employed in individuals ownership, are significantly more likely to experience income decline. The employment pressure of migrant workers in South and East China is significantly lower than in other regions, and the employment pressure is significant different among industries.