中国粮食供给态势及其区域差异比较研究

A Comparative Study of China’s Food Supply Situation and Its Regional Differences

基于我国1988-2017年粮食供给相关数据,设定一个动态评估标准,运用固定效应模型,研究粮食供给能力区域差距问题。研究发现中国粮食供给能力区域差距明显,主产区粮食供给能力处于较高水平,非主产区变化不大;东部地区最差,中部地区优势日益明显,西部个别地区发展较快,但是整体速度缓慢;向中、西部加速聚集,向欠发达地区和非农业优势地区分散转移的趋势明显;差异造成粮食减产足以为1569万人,提供每年400kg/人的粮食,导致宏观粮食供给能力的降低;种植面积、粮食单产水平、涉粮有效灌溉面积和机械总动力能够促进粮食供给能力的提升,涉粮化肥施用量和农村劳动力数量指标则呈负向效用。

The criteria for dynamically assessing food production is established. It is utilized to analyze the regional gap of China's food supply capability by employing a fixed effect model and estimating China's per capita food supply (PCFS) in 1988-2017 at different scales. It shows a significant gap in food production in China. The food supply capability in the major areas maintains at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, the variation is negligible in the minor areas. In sharp contrast to the regional economic development, the food supply capability in the eastern areas is the worst. However, it shows a growing and distinct advantage in the central areas and some of the western areas. China's food production is accelerating to aggregate to the provinces in central and western areas, and decentralized transferring to the undeveloped and non-agricultural dominant areas. The regional gap leads to food reduction supposed to be affordable for the living of 15.69 million people with an annual per capita food supply of 400 kg and leading to a declined macro food supply capability. Additionally, cultivated area, food per unit yield, food-related effective irrigated area and total mechanical power have positive effects on improving food supply capability. On the contrary, the amount of food-related chemical fertilizer and the indicator of agricultural practitioner show negative effects.