市场冲击与企业投资的创新效应研究——兼论去杠杆和贸易战对“中国创造”进程的潜在影响

Research on Market Shocks and Innovative Effects of Enterprise Investment: The Potential Impact of Deleveraging and Trade Wars on the Process of “Created in China”

去杠杆和贸易战所带来的市场紧缩是否会影响中国制造业转型升级的节奏?中国制造业会选择坚守“中国制造”来渡过严冬,还是选择借机实现“中国创造”的突破?为了回答这些问题,笔者以不同市场冲击情形下,企业对产能扩张投资和技术创新投资的选择行为作为研究对象,分别构建投资要素替代和投资资本回报率的理论框架,并结合制造业上市公司财务数据展开实证研究。研究发现,市场紧缩并不会阻碍中国制造业企业转型升级的进程,反而比市场繁荣更易激发企业投资于技术创新。因此可以推断,即使去杠杆和贸易战会在短期内带来市场紧缩的不利影响,但仍然不会阻碍中国制造业转型升级的总体进程。因此,笔者建议在市场需求下探时期强化创新投资相关融资保障渠道的建设,在繁荣时期保证国内市场的充分竞争,并结合市场需求状态适时制定引导企业创新的鼓励性产业政策。

Would China s manufacturing transformation and upgrading get impacted by the market tightness due to the deleveraging and trade wars?How would China go from “Made in China” to “Created in China”?This study analyzes the investment behavior of Chinese manufacturing firms under different market shocks using a theoretical framework of investment-factor substitution and investment-return on capital respectively.Overall,our study indicates that the market tightness will not impede China s continuing transformation.Findings also indicate that the deleveraging and trade wars will not become the roadblocks of the manufacturing industry in the long run.We suggest that the government should reinforce the construction of financing instrument and channels for the innovation investment during the downturn of demand,promote and maintain full competition in domestic markets during the economic boom,as well as incentivize business innovation.