基于GIS和AHP的雷电灾害风险区划分析与评估──以内蒙古雷灾为例

Analysis and Evaluation of Lightning Disaster Risk Regionalization Based on GIS and AHP in Inner Mongolia

基于自然灾害风险理论,利用雷暴日和闪电定位资料、基础地理信息资料、社会经济资料以及雷电灾情资料,选取地形变化、水系、土壤电导率、雷暴日、地闪密度、土地利用、人均GDP、敏感单位防雷能力等11个指标,运用层次分析法构建了雷电灾害风险指数,建立雷电灾害风险评估模型,从雷电灾害的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个方面进行了系统的分析,并运用ArcGIS进行了1 km×1 km雷电灾害综合风险区划。区划结果表明内蒙古东部大部和中部南部地区属于高风险区,中部北部地区属于中风险区,低风险区域主要分布在西部地区。通过选取雷灾资料进行雷电灾害的灰色关联评估,以验证区划结果的正确性,评估结果与雷电灾害风险区划分布大体一致。

Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, 11 indexes, such as terrain change, water system, soil conductivity, thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, land use, per capita GDP, and lightning protection ability of sensitive units, were selected from thunderstorm day and lightning location data, basic geographic information data, social economic data and lightning disaster data. The risk index of lightning disaster was constructed by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and the risk assessment model of lightning disaster was set up. The systematic analysis was made from 4 aspects of lightning disaster factors, pregnancy disaster environment, disaster bearing body and disaster prevention and reduction ability, and the comprehensive risk zoning of 1 km×1 km lightning disaster was carried out by ArcGIS. The results showed that most of the eastern Inner Mongolia and the southern parts of central Inner Mongolia belonged to the high risk area, the northern part of the central Inner Mongolia belonged to the middle risk area, and the low risk area was mainly distributed in the western region. In order to verify the correctness of the regionalization results, the lightning disaster data were selected for the grey correlation evaluation of the lightning disaster, the assessment results were consistent with the distribution of lightning disaster risk regionalization.