重庆武隆高山甘蓝根肿病气象预测研究

Meteorological Prediction of Cabbage Clubroot in Mountainous Areas of Wulong Chongqing

为防御和减轻重庆地区高山甘蓝根肿病的发生,选择武隆高山甘蓝为研究对象,采用该区2010-2014年气象资料和高山甘蓝田间试验资料,分析气象因子与根肿病发病率的关系。筛选出对根肿病影响显著的气象因子为定植-成活期的累积雨量、定植后第12~14日平均气温,采用回归方法建立甘蓝根肿病气象预测模型。利用2015-2016年试验资料对模型进行验证和试用,确定系数R^2为0.68,说明该预测方法具有较好的客观性和适用性,可应用于重庆高山地区甘蓝根肿病发生的气象条件预测。气象防治和生物防治相结合,将为高山甘蓝根肿病的综合防治提供新的理论依据。

To prevent and reduce the occurrence of clubroot in mountainous areas of Chongqing,the cabbage of Wulong district was selected as the research object.The relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of clubroot was analyzed by using meteorological data of 2010-2014 and field examination data of mountain cabbage in this area.The accumulated precipitation at the transplanting survival period and the mean temperature at 12-14 days after field planting were used to establish a meteorological prediction model for cabbage clubroot.The regression model was verified and tested by 2015-2016 examination data,the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.68.It proves that the prediction method has good objectivity and applicability,and can be applied to the forecast of meteorological conditions of the occurrence of cabbage clubroot in Chongqing mountainous areas.The combination of meteorological control and biological control will provide a new theoretical basis for the integrated control of clubroot in mountainous areas.