社会融资规模与货币供应量:货币政策中介目标有效性分析——基于拔靴滚动窗口因果关系检验

The Effectiveness of Social Financing Scale and Money Supply: Monetary Policy Intermediary Targets——Based on the Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Test

基于2002-2018年的季度数据,运用拔靴滚动窗口因果关系方法,实证检验社会融资规模与货币供应量(M2)在不同经济时期作为货币政策目标的有效性。研究结果显示:在经济运行平稳时期,货币供应总量在未来的很长一段时间内,仍然是我国货币政策中介目标的主流标准,而社会融资规模在经济下行周期中具有较高的有效性,可以与货币供应总量相互补充,相辅相成,形成以货币供应总量为主、社会融资规模为补充的货币政策中介目标体系。社会融资规模不仅可以在经济平稳运行时期作为货币供应总量的参考因素,也可以在经济处于下行时期作为促进我国实体经济复苏和经济高质量发展的一项重要指标。因此,应依然坚持以广义货币供应量为主的货币政策中介目标;建立包括社会融资规模的货币政策中介目标体系;优化金融生态环境,切实加大和提高金融支持与服务实体经济的力度和效率;以社会融资规模为基础循序渐进推动利率市场化进程。

Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2018,bootstrap rolling window causality test is used to test the effectiveness of social financing scale and M2as intermediate target of monetary policy during different economic periods.The result shows that during the stable cycle of economy,M2is still the mainstream standard of China's intermediate target of monetary policy for a long time in the future,while the social financing scale is more effective in the economic downturn,which can be used as a supplement to M2.In this way,it is possible to construct an intermediate target of monetary policy system based on M2 and the social financing scale.The social financing scale can be used not onlyas a reference factor for the total money supply during the stable cycle of economic operation,but also as an important indicator for promoting the recovery of China's real economy and high-quality economic development during the economy downturn.Therefore,we should still adhere to M2-based intermediary targets of monetary policy,establish an intermediary targets of monetary policy system including social financing scale,optimize the financial ecological environment in order to improve the strength and efficiency of financial support and service of the real economy,and gradually promote the interest rate marketization process based on the social financing scale.