美国科技创新对中国科技创新溢出效应的时变特征研究

The Time-varying Spillover Effects of American Technological Innovation on China

在理论分析的基础上,根据中美科技创新数据的结构特点,构建LT-TVP-VAR模型实证研究美国科技创新对中国科技创新溢出效应的时变特征。结果表明,美国科技创新对中国科技创新的溢出效应呈现先上升、后下降的"倒U型"形态,峰值出现于2005年,长期溢出强度大于短期。因此,应该在外部推动新一轮对外开放和妥善处理中美关系,营造良好的营商和外商投资环境;而在内部持续推动结构性改革,提升自主创新能力及经济发展的稳定性和韧性。

According to the theoretical analysis and structure characteristics of Sino-US science and technology innovation data,this paper employs the LT-TVP-VAR model to empirically study the time-varying characteristics of spillover effects of American science and technology innovation on China. Research results show that the spillover effects on Chinese science and technology innovation are showed "inverted U"pattern,with the peak appearing in 2005. In addition,the direct and indirect spillover effects of long-term are greater than those of the short term. The results reveal that externally a new round of opening-up and proper handling of Sino-US relations should be promoted,and a favorable environment for doing business and foreign investment should be created,while internally the structural reform should be promoted to enhance the capacity for independent innovation and the stability and resilience of economic development.