空间视角下中国在东盟OFDI的影响因素分析

Analysis of the Factors Affecting China’s OFDI in the ASEAN from the Perspective of Space

国际投资一直是研究热点,而第三方效应对中国的OFDI具有重要影响。本文基于2003 2017年中国在东盟的直接投资数据,通过计算莫兰指数和吉尔里指数,并构建三种空间计量模型,实证分析第三方效应对中国在东盟OFDI的影响。结果表明:中国OFDI的集聚效应、第三方市场潜力和第三方不可观测因素均对中国在东盟的OFDI具有显著影响。另外,中国在东盟的OFDI也受到东道国市场规模、贸易和吸收外资能力等指标的重要影响。因此,在国际投资环境不稳定时,国内企业在投资对象选择上应注重均衡性投资,同时中国政府也应及时建立兼顾投资风险和收益的金融保障机制。

International investment has always been a research hotspot, and third-party effects have an important impact on China's OFDI. Based on China's direct investment data in ASEAN from 2003 to 2017, this paper calculates the Moran and Geary indices and constructs three spatial econometric models to empirically analyze the impact of third-party effects on China's OF DI in the ASEAN. The results show that the agglomeration effect of China's OFDI, the market potential of third parties and the unobservable factors of third parties have a significant impact on China's OFDI in ASEAN. In addition, the size of the host country's market, trade and ability to absorb foreign capital also have an important impact on China's OFDI in ASEAN. Therefore, when the international investment environment is unstable, domestic enterprises should focus on balanced investment in the choice of investment objects, and the Chinese government should also establish a financial security mechanism that takes into account investment risks and returns in a timely manner.