新疆生产建设兵团地区气候资源变化及其对农业生产效率的影响

Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Production Efficiency in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Area

气候资源是农业生产的基本要素之一,当前全球气候变暖对农业造成一定的影响。对1990~2016年新疆生产建设兵团所在地区农业气候资源、农业生产要素、农业生产效率以及气候对农业生产效率的影响进行了研究。首先梳理了当地气温、降水和日照的变化特征和趋势;然后利用主成分分析当地农业生产的影响因素,基于投入产出理论利用数据包络模型分析当地农业生产效率,进一步构建农业生产效率和气象因素的多元线性回归模型。研究结果表明:多年来当地气温升高,降水增加,日照时长减少,南疆气温升高趋势比北疆明显,降水增量低于北疆;年平均气温变化以中长周期为主,降水从频繁的短周期转变为中长周期,波动幅度加剧;研究期内,气温和降水变化没有明显的突变点;自然资源、科技、现代农业生产条件和资金投入对当地农业生产影响较大;当地农业生产效率稳步提高,在当前气象变化条件下,气温和降水都对农业生产效率产生正效应,气温对农业生产效率的促进作用远高于降水。保障当地农业生产的长期稳定,要积极应对气候变化,充分利用气象资源变化带来的有利方面,预防极端天气带来的危害,提高农业生产的适应性和自我缓解能力。

Climate resources are one of the basic elements of agricultural production,and the current global warming has a certain impact on agriculture. The effects of agroclimatic resources,agricultural production factors,agricultural production efficiency and the effect of climate on agricultural production efficiency of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) during 1990 ~ 2016 were studied. Firstly,the change characteristics and trends of temperature,precipitation and sunshine were analyzed. Then,the factors of agricultural production were analyzed by principle components analysis (PCA),and the efficiency of agricultural production was analyzed by SE-DEA based on input-output theory. Furthermore,the multiple linear regression model for agricultural production efficiency and meteorological factors was conducted. The results show that,over the years,the temperature and the precipitation increase,the sunshine duration decrease. The temperature in the southern is higher than that in the northern,and the precipitation increment is lower than that in the northern. There is no obvious abrupt change of temperature and precipitation;Natural resources,science and technology,modern agricultural production conditions and capital input have a great impact on the agricultural production. The efficiency of agricultural production of the XPCC has steadily improved. Under the current meteorological conditions,temperature and precipitation have a positive effect on agricultural production efficiency,and the temperature has a higher positive effect than the effect of the precipitation. To ensure the long-term stability of agricultural production in the XPCC,climate change should be responded to actively,aspects of the meteorological changes should be made full use of to prevent the harm caused by extreme weather,and to improve the adaptability and self-mitigation ability of agriculture.