行为经济学视角下市场情绪对区域金融风险影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Market Emotion on Regional Financial Risk from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics

2014年下半年以来,R市贸易融资风险集中暴露,引发的金融风险对当地造成较大影响。本文借鉴国内外行为金融学的前沿理论和实证方法,从微观视角分析了市场情绪对区域金融风险的影响路径,通过构建市场情绪指数、运用向量自回归(VAR)模型实证分析,论证了市场情绪对区域金融市场运行的显著影响,并从引导市场情绪方面提出了防控区域金融风险的政策建议。

Since the second half of 2014, the trade financing risks of R City have been exposed, and the financial risks have caused great impact on the local area. This paper draws on the frontier theory and empirical methods of behavioral finance home and abroad, and analyzes the influence path of market sentiment on regional financial risk from the microscopic perspective. By constructing market sentiment index and using vector autoregressive ( VAR) model empirical analysis, this paper demonstrates the significant influence of market sentiment on the operation of regional financial markets, and proposes policy recommendations for preventing and controlling regional financial risks from the perspective of guiding market sentiment.