基于引力模型的中美贸易摩擦分析

The analysis of China and the United States Trade Friction based on Gravity Model

中美两国经济关系是全球经济关系不可分割的一部分,中美贸易关系是中美经济关系中重要的组成部分。虽然目前两国在贸易发展中存在一定的摩擦与冲突,但不能改变两国合作共赢的趋势,良好的贸易关系符合中美两国人民根本利益,有助于两国和世界经济稳定发展。现有研究往往关注中美贸易失衡问题、中美贸易与汇率等方面原因的探索,而对中美贸易摩擦、中美贸易顺差和中美两国经济三者的关系缺乏较为系统的研究。本文首先从静态角度分析中美贸易现状;其次从统计性、结构性、依存性和政治性四个角度探寻中美贸易关系变化的原因;再次基于引力模型,创新引入贸易摩擦次数变量,以脉冲响应函数研究中美贸易顺差、中美贸易摩擦和中美GDP之间的动态关系;最后根据静态和动态分析结果提出政策建议,在经济上推动贸易市场多元化、加强我国自主创新能力、有效拉动内部需求,在政治上采取有效反制措施、争取利益群体支持、积极寻求国际合作。

The economic relation between China and the United States is an inseparable part of the global economic relations, their trade relation is an important part of the economic relation between China and the United States. Although there are certain frictions and conflicts in the development of trade between the two countries, it cannot change the general trend of win - win cooperation between the two countries. A sound trade relationship serves the fundamental interests of the people and contributes to the stable development of the two countries and the world economy. Existing studies tend to focus on trade imbalance, to explore the cause of China trade and exchange rate, etc. For the trade friction, China trade surplus and the economy of China and the United States the lack of a systematic research on the relationship between them. Firstly, this article from the perspective of the static, analysis of trade size and trade relationship between China and the United States, secondly this article from the statistical、stmctural、external dependency and political perspective to explore the cause of the changes in trade relation, again based on the gravity model, innovation into number of variables, the trade friction with impulse response function study of China's trade surplus, trade friction and the dynamic relationship between the GDP of China and the United States;In the end, according to the results of static and dynamic analysis, policy suggestions are put forward to promote the diversification of trade market, strengthen China's independent innovation capability, effectively stimulate internal demand;take effective counter measures politically, seek support from interest groups and actively seek international cooperation.