中国大豆进口来源国的出口需求弹性实证研究

Empirical Study on Export Demand Elasticity of China′s Soybean Import Country

世界大豆价格的波动引起人们对大豆出口方和进口方的研究关注。目前世界大豆的进出口格局呈现为:中国是世界上最大的大豆进口国;中国大豆进口量占世界大豆总进口量的60%以上,美国、巴西、阿根廷是世界上最大的3个大豆产出国,这3个国家的大豆出口量占世界大豆总出口量的80%以上。同时中国大豆进口量的90%左右来自这3个国家,所以研究这3个国家对中国的大豆出口需求弹性,对中国和这3个大豆出口国家的贸易选择和政策制定均具有重要意义。本研究通过理论推导出大豆出口国的出口需求弹性模型并进行实证分析,结果表明:美国、巴西、阿根廷对中国的大豆出口需求弹性最大的是1.26(取绝对值);从均值来看,最大的是1.02,其余都小于1,所以基本可以判断这3个国家对中国的大豆出口需求都是缺乏弹性的。横向比较来看,美国的大豆出口需求弹性最大,阿根廷次之,巴西的大豆出口需求弹性最小。

The fluctuation of world soybean price has aroused people′s attention to the research of soybean exporters and importers. At present, the pattern of world soybean import and export is as follows: China is the largest soybean importer in the world. China′s soybean imports accounts for over 60% of the world′s total imports of soybean, the United States, Brazil, Argentina are the three biggest soybean producers in the world, whose soybean exports accounts for more than 80% of the world′s total exports of soybean. At the same time, about 90% of China′s soybean imports are from these three countries. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the elasticity of soybean export demand of these three countries to China, as well as the trade choice and policy formulation of China and these three soybean export countries. This study deduced the export demand elasticity model of soybean exporters theoretically and calculated its numerical value. The results of empirical analysis showed that the largest export demand elasticity of the United States, Brazil and Argentina to China was 1.26(take the absolute value). From the perspective of the average value, the largest one was 1.02, while the rest was less than 1. Therefore, it could be basically judged that the demand of these three countries for China′s soybean export was inelastic. In horizontal comparison, the export demand elasticity of soybean in the United States was the largest, followed by Argentina and Brazil.