风险、模糊与个体决策行为研究综述:兼论其在农业技术扩散中的应用

A Review of Risk, Ambiguity and Decision-making Behavior and its Application in Technology Diffusion of Agriculture

农民是不确定性农业生产活动的主要行动主体。他们对不确定性外因的效用和概率的主观判断,构成其风险和模糊态度,并以此做出相应决策行动。近些年,在农业生产领域,关于风险和模糊态度的理论及行为实验研究大量涌现,但缺乏对相关成果的全面梳理。本文从行为经济学的角度出发,通过对以往研究的归纳和评述,剖析决定个体风险和模糊态度的决策行为机理以及认知能力在其中发挥的调节作用,期待为助推"三农"发展、实现乡村振兴的政策设计提供一个理论研究的视角。

Farmers are the main behavioral agent of uncertain agricultural production activities. Their subjective judgment to utility and probability of external uncertainty events constitutes their attitudes to risk and ambiguity, which prompts corresponding decision-making action. In recent years, theoretical and empirical experiments on risk and ambiguity attitudes have sprung up in the field of agricultural research, but lack of comprehensive combing of these studies. On this basis, this paper summarizes and reviews previous studies from the perspective of behavioral economics. Considering the effect of cognitive ability, we then analyze the decision-making mechanism under risk and ambiguity. This paper aims to build a theoretical perspective for promoting development of agriculture, peasants and rural areas and realizing the strategic target of "Rural Revitalization".