新《预算法》、债务规则与财政政策的逆周期性

The New Budget Law, Debt Rules and the Counter-Cyclicity of Fiscal Policy

本文在厘清债务规则与财政规则相关概念的基础上,通过一个动态面板模型考察了新《预算法》中债务规则对我国财政政策的影响,回归结果显示:债务规则的出现是我国财政政策逆周期性下降的重要原因,该结论部分解释了我国当前财政政策积极性遭遇某些质疑的原因。而后本文通过构建一个含有扭曲税率的NK-DSGE模型,考察了三种不同经济下行原因的情况下,财政政策逆周期性下降对宏观经济稳定性的影响。结果显示:财政政策逆周期性的减弱虽然在短期内造成经济下行压力较大,产出恢复速度降低;但从中长期角度来看,逆周期性下降可以有效降低债务风险和提高经济的中长期恢复速度。本文的研究揭示了新《预算法》对宏观经济的影响路径及其具体效应,最后基于结论提出了具有可操作性的政策建议。

On the basis of clarifying the concepts related to debt rules and fiscal rules, this paper examines the impact of debt rules in the new Budget Law on China’s fiscal policy through a dynamic panel model. The regression results show that debt rules is an important reason for the decline of counter-cyclicity of China’s fiscal policy. This conclusion partly explains that China’s current fiscal policy enthusiasm has met some doubts. Then, by constructing a NK-DSGE model with distorted tax rates, this paper examines the impact of the decline of countercyclicity on macroeconomic stability under three different economic downturns. The results show that although the weakening of the counter-cyclical fiscal policy has caused a great downward pressure on the economy in the short term and reduced the rate of output recovery, in the medium and long term, the counter-cyclical decline can effectively reduce the debt risk and improve the medium and long-term recovery rate of the economy. This paper reveals the impact path of the new Budget Law on macro-economy and its specific effects. Finally, based on the conclusions, it puts forward some feasible policy recommendations.