基于VLBP神经网络算法的中国旅游外汇收入预测研究

FORECAST ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE INCOME OF CHINESE TOURISM BASED ON VLBP NEURAL NETWORK

国家化、多元化的旅游业发展是目前旅游市场研究的重点,旅游外汇收入是体现旅游业发展的水平和潜力的重要标准之一。往往旅游外汇收入及其影响因素之间存在线性和非线性两种关系。利用VLBP神经网络,针对近20年相关数据建立合理的预测模型,对2020年至2025年的旅游外汇收入进行预测。同时将预测结果与时序模型预测结果进行对比,分析改善影响因素的途径,对未来涉外旅游市场开发和评价提供良好的基础。

The development of nationalized and diversified tourism industry is the focus of current tourism market research.Foreign exchange income of tourism is one of the important standards to reflect the level and potential of tourism development.There are usually linear and non-linear relationships between tourism foreign exchange incomes and its influencing factors.In this paper,we used VLBP neural network to establish the reasonable forecast model with relevant data for nearly 20 years.We forecasted the foreign exchange incomes of tourism from 2020 to 2025,compared the forecasting results with the forecasting results of time series model,and analyzed the ways to improve the influencing factors,so as to provide a good basis for the development and evaluation of foreign-related tourism market in the future.