深圳市乙类大型医用设备配置数量预测研究

Prediction for the number of class-B large medical equipment allocation in Shenzhen

目的采用指数平滑法,对2020年和2030年深圳市乙类大型医用设备配置数量作出合理的预测。方法通过深圳市卫生和计划生育委员会收集20092017年深圳市乙类大型医用设备配置情况,采用指数平滑法对2020年和2030年设备配置量进行预测。结果指数平滑法预测2020年和2030年深圳市的计算机断层扫描、磁共振成像、数字减影血管造影、单光子发射计算机断层扫描和直线加速器5种设备配置数量分别为258和587台、174和477台、130和374台、39和112台、31和96台。结论本研究采用指数平滑法对深圳市乙类大型医用设备配置数量预测和规划,具有较好的参考价值。

Objective To make a reasonable prediction for the number of class-B large medical equipment in 2020 and 2030 in Shenzhen by exponential smoothing method.Methods Data on class-B large medical equipment allocation in Shenzhen from 2009 to 2017 were collected by Shenzhen Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission,and the equipment allocation in Shenzhen in 2020 and 2030 were predicted by exponential smoothing method.Results The prediction results showed that the number of computed tomography,magnetic resonance imaging,digital subtraction angiography,single-photon emission computed tomography and linear accelerator in Shenzhen in 2020 and 2030 were 258 and 587,174 and 477,130 and 374,39 and 112,and 31 and 96,respectively.Conclusion This study has good reference value for the prediction and planning of class-B large medical equipments allocation in Shenzhen by exponential smoothing method.