互联网普及促进公共服务消费升级的机理路径及其多重效应

The Mechanism Path and Multiple Effects of Internet Popularization to Promote the Consumption Upgrading of Public Services

传统需求理论认为价格和收入水平是影响消费的重要因素,但互联网普及显著促进了公共服务消费升级。文章研究了互联网普及促进公共服务消费升级的内在机理与传导路径,实证检验了互联网普及影响公共服务消费的异质效应、拥培效应以及门槛效应。研究发现互联网普及对促进公共服务消费升级具有显著的正效应,但互联网普及促进公共服务消费升级也具有单一的门槛效应;我国目前互联网普及率均值为35.42%,当互联网普及率超过44.11%时,对公共服务消费影响的边际效应将提升到0.213,较目前的0.144将提升47.92%;在"互联网+"背景下,虽然互联网普及对农村公共服务消费具有更高的边际效应,但目前公共服务消费升级主要还是通过城镇化率和人力资本提升来实现的,且人口出生率的增加将加剧公共服务消费的拥堵效应。因此,需要进一步加强农村的互联网基础设施建设,依靠互联网提升城镇化水平和质量,依靠信息技术教育提升人力资本水平。

Traditional demand theory holds that price and residents' income level are important factors affecting the upgrading of public service consumption.But in the Internet era,Internet popularization has significantly promoted the progress.This paper studies the internal mechanism and transmission path and empirically examines the heterogeneity effect,congestion and threshold effects of this progress.The research finds that Internet popularization has a significant positive effect and a single threshold effect on promoting the upgrading of public service consumption.At present,the average Internet penetration rate in China is 35.42%.When the Internet penetration rate exceeds 44.11%,the marginal effect on public service consumption will increase to 0.213,47.92% higher than the current 0.144.Under the Internet plus background,although the popularity of Internet has a higher marginal effect on the consumption of public services in rural areas,the upgrading of public service consumption is mainly achieved through the improvement of urbanization rate and human capital,and the increase of birth rate has further aggravated the congestion effect of public service consumption.Therefore,we need to further strengthen the construction of rural Internet infrastructure,improve the level and quality of urbanization and enhance the level of human capital relying on the Internet innovation and information technology education.