定量风险评价中管道失效可能性的计算方法

Calculation Method of Pipeline Failure Possibility in Quantitative Risk Assessment

为了研究定量风险评价中管道失效可能性的计算方法,详细分析了经典物理学的确定性计算方法和现代统计学的随机不确定性计算方法在管道风险评价中的应用,同时对管道失效可能性的计算方法提出了改进建议。该建议揭示了两种计算方法的优势和不足之处,对各自优势的发挥和缺点的弥补给出了解决方法,阐明了计算原理。研究表明:在定量风险评价中,常用的基于频率和概率统计的不确定性计算方法对接确定性计算方法,既能够从宏观角度对管道失效可能性进行整体统计计算,也可深入到各种风险因素的专业技术分析层面,是行之有效的管道失效可能性计算方法。

In order to study the calculation method of pipeline failure probability in quantitative risk assessment,the application of deterministic calculation method of classical physics and stochastic uncertainty calculation method of modern statistics in pipeline risk assessment is studied in detail.At the same time,some suggestions for improving the calculation method of pipeline failure probability are put forward.This proposal reveals the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods,gives solutions to their respective advantages and disadvantages,and expounds the calculation principle.The research shows that the docking deterministic calculation method based on the uncertainty calculation method of frequency and probability statistics commonly used in quantitative risk assessment can not only make overall statistical calculation of pipeline failure probability from a macro point of view,but also go deep into the professional and technical analysis level of various risk factors.It is an effective method for calculating pipeline failure probability.