中国省际经济差距的时空演变研究

Study on Spatial-Temporal Evolution of China’s Interprovincial Economic Gap

基于1994-2016中国31个省域面板数据,文章运用ESDA和动态空间杜宾面板模型研究经济差距的时空演变、驱动因素和空间溢出效应。结果表明:省际经济差距以2004年为界,先扩大后缩小,存在空间自相关。省际经济差距方面,工业偏离是主导因素;产业结构是派生驱动因素;人户偏离、城镇化是响应性驱动因素;工业水平、农业水平、出口程度是常规因素。省际经济差距存在收敛效应、空间溢出效应,无论是短期还是长期,工业偏离、产业结构和城镇化都在扩大差距,人户偏离则缩小差距,长期溢出为短期溢出的4倍左右。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1994 to 2016, this paper uses ESDA and dynamic spatial Dubin panel model to study the spatial-temporal evolution, driving factors and spatial spillover effects of economic gap. The results show that the economic gap between provinces is bounded by 2004, first enlarged and then narrowed, and there is spatial autocorrelation;in terms of inter-provincial economic gap, industrial deviation is the leading factor, industrial structure the derived driving factor, and deviation of residence and household registered, and urbanization are the responsive driving factor;industrial level, agricultural level and export degree are conventional factors. There is convergence effect and spatial spillover effect in the inter-provincial economic gap;either in the short term or long term, industrial deviation, industrial structure and urbanization are widening the gap, while deviation of residence and household registered is narrowing the gap, and the long-term spillover is about4 times of the short-term spillover.